Game Preview: Arizona

Merry Christmas to all! This was a great season—a lot of ups, a lot of downs. After watching the Sooners battle every week for the past (nearly) four months, we are at the last game of the season: The Alamo Bowl vs. #14 Arizona. Let's look at what to expect this coming Thursday against the Wildcats.

Oklahoma

Oklahoma is coming off a weird but awesome 69-45 win over the TCU Horned Frogs. The offense was elite for all 60 minutes, and the defense was elite for... the first half. Let's forget about that second half. See the graphic above for OU's statistical leaders from the season.

The offense for the Sooners is by far the most significant question mark going into the Alamo Bowl. Jackson Arnold will be our starting QB as Dillon Gabriel transferred to Oregon. We're getting a couple of different starters in on the offensive line, one of them because Cayden Green left. Finally, this will be our first game with Seth Littrell as our offensive coordinator now that Jeff Lebby is the head coach of Mississippi State. Despite putting his name in the transfer portal, Tawee Walker will be playing for the Sooners. This will be Jackson Arnold's first career start, which could go in several ways. So how will it go? I'm predicting two words: BOMBS AWAY. This is the last game of the season, not a playoff game or anything with those types of implications. Jackson Arnold is a five-star QB who needs to learn what he will/won't struggle with to prepare better for next season. We'll see him run the entire offense, probably taking a lot of deep shots. We know he has the arm strength for it. We think he has the accuracy for it. He's going to light up the Arizona defense. On top of this, having Gavin Sawchuk and Tawee Walker in there, our run game will be on it. It will be tough for Arizona to slow down OU's offense.

The defensive performance could go in any direction. OU has had a month to prepare for the Wildcats. The last time we had more than a week to prepare for a team, we almost lost to UCF. That said, Danny Stutsman, Billy Bowman, Da'Jon Terry, and Rondell Bothroyd are all announcing they're staying for another year, which means they'll be playing in the bowl game. They're four of our better defensive playmakers and will do everything they can to ensure we can go into the offseason with a win. Brent Venables and Ted Roof will call a game in a similar way they have all season: bringing the house. We're going up against a really good QB who, if you give time to throw, will chop up your defense like cheap bread. If you put pressure on him, he will make mistakes. A lot of zone blitzes will help our defense contain the QB run, put pressure on him to force mistakes, and allow our DBs to be in areas to capitalize on the offense's mistakes quickly.

Arizona

The Wildcats are coming off a dominant 59-23 win over in-state rival Arizona State. They're coming into the Alamo Bowl looking for their first 10-win season since 2014. See the graphic above for a list of their statistical leaders from the season.

This is the best season Arizona has had in a long time. Nine wins with near victories over USC and Washington, combined with victories over Utah (a blowout win), UCLA, and Oregon State, tell us that Arizona has an offense not to be taken lightly. Their QB can throw well, and their offensive line consistently creates openings for their running backs. I predict we will see the Arizona offense run a lot of RPOs and play-action passes. Sure, they'll run the ball a nice amount, but when you have a QB who can throw as well as Fifita can, you don't ignore that ability. Once they have our defense constantly defending the pass, they can open the playbook and return to the run. They have offensive linemen who are big and strong and will push you all over the place. I'm pretty intrigued to see how this offense does against our defense.

Arizona has a good defense. I want to ensure no one here underestimates their defense's ability. Only once this year did they allow a team to score more than 40 points. They held Washington State's explosive offense to only six points. So how will they do against the best offense they've faced all year, Oklahoma? Will they bring blitz after blitz, trying to force Jackson Arnold to make mistakes and not give him time to think? Will they drop eight every play, trying to shut down every possible receiver? Will they sell out on the run? There are many things to consider, given they're going against a team with a new QB and OC. I predict they will have a 50/50 split between a zero blitz and dropping eight into tight zone coverage. Arizona will bring the house in crucial situations like third/fourth down, trying to get into field goal range, goal to go, or others. They might even leave a man or two open trying to get to Jackson Arnold. When they're probing what Arnold's tendencies will be and how he moves through his progressions, we will likely see a standard blitz with a lot of DBs dropping into coverage.

Prediction

Throughout this preview, I've been trying to emphasize that Arizona is not a team to underestimate. They're a really good team, and we can't afford to overlook them. That said, I can't imagine this game is too close. It might be close for a minute in the first half. But OU is looking for any momentum going into year one in the SEC. Both our offense and defense are too good to lose to Arizona. This one will likely be over by the fourth quarter.

Score Prediction: Arizona 28, Oklahoma 52

Oklahoma Yardage:

• Passing Yards: 300-350

• Rushing Yards: 150-200

• Total yards: 450-550

Arizona Yardage:

• Passing Yards: 250-300

• Rushing Yards: 100-140

• Total yards: 350-440

We don't know a lot about this team going into next year. A lot of the questions we have could be answered on Thursday. Let's see this game end better than last year's bowl game against Florida State and have a fun ending to the year. Boomer Sooner!

All stats above courtesy of ESPN.