Alright, Sooner Nation. We made it to conference play. We started 2023 like we started 2022: 3-0 with a dominant win to finish conference play. This has some Sooners fans concerned. Some insist the team is better than we were last year. We all know that conference play is when everything changed last year. So, let's discuss what to expect heading into conference play this year.
Photo credit to Heartland College Sports.
Oklahoma
Last week's game against Tulsa was as good as it could be. Almost all of the offensive woes from week two vanished. Except for three drives, the defense dominated the Golden Hurricane. There was a lot to admire about the Sooners in week three. Below are the statistical leaders:
Passing: Dillon Gabriel, 28/31, 421 yards, five touchdowns, one interception.
Rushing: Jovantae Barnes, 13 rushes, 68 yards, one touchdown.
Receiving: Jalil Farooq, six catches, 126 yards, one touchdown.
Tackling: Danny Stutsman, nine total tackles, four solo, two tackles for loss, one interception returned for a touchdown.
Dillon Gabriel's precision and accuracy were the biggest takeaways from the offense in week three. Gabriel was throwing dime after dime. For a while, it seemed he could not miss. Combine that with receivers making constant contested catches and separating from defensive backs, and you have one lethal air attack. I expect Oklahoma to lean heavily on the passing game against Cincinnati in week four. Cincinnati's defensive backs are much smaller than OU's wide receivers and nowhere near as fast. As long as our receivers aren't afraid to be physical with them, Gabriel and the receivers should shred the Bearcats' defense. The run game didn't look great against Tulsa, and they face a much more difficult opponent this week. Cincinnati has one of the better defensive lines in college football. The offensive line's run support is the single most significant improvement the Sooners need to make, and this game will be a great test to see how they have improved. I expect the Sooners to utilize the backs through the air more than on the ground, with likely a heavy dose of play-action.
This Oklahoma defense is playing on another level this year. Sam and I discuss in our podcast this week (which gets posted later tonight) how much better the tackling is, and it showed in the game against Tulsa. When Tulsa changed QBs, our defense struggled for a little bit but quickly adjusted. This week, they face a new challenge with Emory Jones, the Cincinnati quarterback. He is a dual-threat QB who can fly down the field. In the 2020 Cotton Bowl blowout against Florida, Oklahoma had met him once before and held him in check. Oklahoma will do whatever they can to limit his abilities running the ball while pressuring him. I'd expect to see a lot of five-person blitzes with a potential spy throughout a lot of the game. If the Sooners have adjusted their issues in coverage from last week, and if they keep the relentless run defense going for the defensive line, Cincinnati will have a lot of trouble moving the ball.
Cincinnati
The Bearcats of Cincinnati are coming off a 31-24 overtime loss to Miami of Ohio. Not a very good look in the post Luke Fickell era. Here are Cincinnati's statistical leaders from week three:
Passing: Emory Jones, 18/34, 265 yards, two interceptions.
Rushing: Ryan Montgomery, 20 rushes, 104 yards
Receiving: Xzavier Henderson, 12 catches, 140 yards
Tackling: Jack Dingle, seven tackles, two solo, 0.5 tackles for loss.
The Cincinnati passing attack isn't the best in the country by any definition, but their rushing offense is on another level. Last week, two running backs earned over 100 rushing yards on 20 attempts each. According to OU defensive coordinator Ted Roof, Cincinnati's worst game of the season running the ball so far earned them 219 yards. Again, that was their worst game. I have no reason to believe we will see anything other than a heavy rushing attack from Cincinnati this week. They have a good offensive line paired with tough and fast running backs. They do a lot up the middle, a lot of pitches to the outside, and even run a few old-school option pitches. Their offense lives and dies with the run, and the Sooner defense should prepare for that.
Cincinnati's defense is playing at about the same level as Oklahoma's defense on paper. According to the NCAA, Oklahoma has the #32 total defense, and Cincinnati has the #44 total defense. We know this is going to be a formidable opponent to face defensively. Their defensive line is one of the top lines in the country. They are big, mean, and tough. They use this to put a lot of pressure on the QB combined with a zone pass defense. Their line gets good penetration, and the linebackers are great in run defense. If Oklahoma can get the ball out quickly and protect Gabriel when he needs to sit in the pocket, Cincinnati's defense would struggle. That said, Oklahoma needs to bring their A-game against this defensive front. I imagine the Bearcats will spend most of the game trying to shut down the run and put pressure on Dillon Gabriel.
Prediction
This will be Oklahoma's biggest test before the Texas game and will not be easy. I predict Oklahoma will struggle for some of the game against the ground and maybe miss a coverage or two, but it will have a mostly good defensive showing. The offense will have trouble scoring consistently because of difficulty running the ball, but we will pull away when Jeff Lebby switches to a pass-heavy offense.
Score Prediction: Oklahoma 38, Cincinnati 20
Oklahoma Yardage:
Passing Yards: 350+
Rushing Yards: 100+
Total Yards: 450+
Cincinnati Yardage:
Passing Yards: 200-220
Rushing Yards: 90-120
Total Yards: 290-340
All of Sooner Nation hopes that this intro to conference play goes significantly better than last year's, and Oklahoma has done little to make us fear a collapse. Go out there, cover the spread, and dominate those Bearcats, Oklahoma. Boomer Sooner!
All stats above courtesy of ESPN.
Comentários