Oklahoma is 1-0 on the year. We're off to a good start. We learned a lot about Oklahoma in week one and have an equal number of questions. Those questions will be answered this week when we face the Houston Cougars from our old conference, the Big 12. Let's dig into what we're likely to see this week.
Oklahoma
The Sooners are coming off a dominant 51-3 win over the Temple Owls in week one. Oklahoma won with a dominant defense and a questionable yet successful offense. See the graphic above for a list of our statistical leaders from the game.
The Oklahoma offense was a big question mark entering week one because of our new offensive coordinators, offensive line, and quarterback. Not many of those questions were answered. Seth Littrell and Brent Venables mentioned in their post-game press conferences that they intentionally didn't push the ball downfield and didn't delve much into the playbook. On top of this, they admitted that there were players on the offensive line that would typically be starters, but since they're rehabbing injuries, we didn't see them. This led to Jackson Arnold throwing four touchdown passes, yet less than 150 yards. We saw dominance on the ground, averaging 6.1 yards per rush, but went 1-12 on third down. The only third-down conversion was the last offensive play of the game. I predict we will see a lot more from our offense this week. With different faces on the offensive line this week, we will likely see Arnold in situations where he can take shots downfield. I would not be surprised to see a heavier feeding of our running backs, either. We now know three great playmakers in our backfield (Sawchuk, Barnes, and Tatum) who can ground and pound with the best of them. This will open the offense to play action, fooling the Houston defense. I anticipate a 60-40 split of passes to runs. The main thing we will see is conservative play calling on first down. They will want second and third down to be from very manageable distances after that travesty that was third down last week.
Oklahoma's defense was a force to be reckoned with in week one. They led the country in turnover margin (+6; the next highest team was +4), sacked the quarterback six times, held Temple to fewer than two yards per rush, and had an outstanding performance from the secondary. The only problem was the occasional busted coverage in zone defense. I anticipate those will get cleaned up this week. The Houston offensive line and running back room have issues that we will dive into later that should make running the ball a futile effort against the elite Sooner front. I anticipate a heavy dose of zone coverages with the occasional man-blitz mixed in to counter a heavy passing attack. The Sooners will likely see the return of players such as Woodi Washington and Makari Vickers, along with the debut of Eli Bowen in the secondary to correct any issues we discovered last week. This mix of pressure and zone defenses will force Donovan Smith into bad throws and sacks. From that point, we must only be prepared to stop their rushing attack.
Houston
The Cougars are coming off a 27-7 humiliation against UNLV in week one. Their only score came on a two-yard touchdown pass with one minute left in the game. See the graphic above for a list of their statistical leaders from week one.
Frankly put, the Houston offense was not good against UNLV in week one. They crossed the 50-yard line only once the entire first half, reaching as far as the UNLV 44-yard line. That drive ended with a punt. In the second half, they didn't gain a first down until their third drive. That drive ended with a pick-six. On 26 rushing attempts (6 sacks included), they ran for 38 yards (1.5 yards per run). The Oklahoma offense looked like the 2019 LSU squad in comparison to Houston. The Houston offensive line was atrocious from the first snap, and their running backs couldn't find anywhere to run. No one runner ran it more than four times, and no runner breached 20 yards. This made them rely heavily on their QB, which I anticipate they will do again this week. Donovan Smith, despite his week one performance, is a solid QB. Don't forget, last season, he threw 16 completions in a row against WVU to end the game, the last being a game-winning hail mary. Don't make the mistake of discounting him. When he starts rolling, he can be challenging to stop. His ability with his legs doesn't make him easier to defend. I anticipate at least 80% of the Houston Snaps will have Donovan Smith deciding where the ball goes.
The Houston defense did everything they could to stop UNLV in the air. They intercepted a pass and made it difficult for UNLV QB Matthew Sluka to find anyone open downfield. Against the ground? UNLV allowed four rushers to average at least four yards a carry, two of whom ran for over 50 yards each. Where they have a solid secondary, their line is not very good. On top of this, their defense features two former Sooners who left when Brent Venables took over: LB Jamal Morris (their lead tackler from week one) and CB Latrell McCutchin. I'm sure no one remembers his father's remarks about OU. Given Oklahoma's issues with the offensive line and injury-plagued receiver room, I predict Houston will blitz—a lot. Maybe 40-45% of their plays will be blitzes. They will do everything they can to keep Oklahoma in long yardage down and distance scenarios and keep Jackson Arnold from finding any rhythm with his arm. Houston's best chance to win this game lies in the arm of Donovan Smith and the ability of their pass rush.
Prediction
This game could very easily be a trap game for the Sooners. Houston is a team at their best when they're overlooked (remember the 2016 season opener?). That said, Oklahoma's defense is too good to allow this game to be too close. Constant turnovers and an opportunistic offense will put this game away by the start of the fourth quarter.
Houston 10, Oklahoma 52
Oklahoma Yardage:
Passing Yards: 220-250
Rushing Yards: 120-150
Total Yards: 340-400
Houston Yards:
Passing Yards: 150-200
Rushing Yards: 50-80
Total Yards: 200-280
Year one in the SEC started exactly as it should have: with a win. Now that we face a team from our old conference, we need to make a statement that the move to the SEC was the right move to make. Let's get this dub. Boomer Sooner!
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