Game Preview: Iowa State

Remember the Anthracite jerseys OU wore last year against Kansas? Rumor is they're coming back this weekend. Do you know what else is (hopefully) coming back this weekend? Blowout victories against the Iowa State Cyclones. Since Matt Campbell joined the Cyclones for the 2016 season, OU has lost to them twice. Our largest margin of victory against them came last year, beating them by 14 points, 27-13. So what should we expect coming into this weekend? Let's discuss this after taking a second to appreciate these uniforms.

Photo credit to SportsLogos.net.

Oklahoma

Oklahoma is coming off a hard-fought 20-6 victory over the Cincinnati Bearcats. The offense looked mediocre at best for most of the game, while the defense completely dominated. The Sooners are hoping to keep this defensive momentum while improving the offense. Below are the statistical leaders from week four for OU:

• Passing: Dillon Gabriel, 26-38, 322 yards, one touchdown.

• Rushing: Marcus Major, 15 rushes, 63 yards.

• Receiving: Andrel Anthony, seven receptions, 117 yards.

• Tackling: Danny Stutsman (surprise), 13 total tackles, seven solo, one sack, 3.5 tackles for loss.

Against Tulsa, Dillon Gabriel looked like one of the top QBs in the country with deadly accuracy. Against Cincinnati, not so much. He was consistent enough to move our offense down the field but overthrew multiple passes that would've been easy touchdowns. Against the Cyclones, we will likely see Gabriel take a calmer approach to the air attack: short routes, curls, crosses, RPOs, and other short to mid-range passes. The offensive line will also have to help Dillon Gabriel. After giving up just one sack in the first three games of the season, they gave up two against Cincinnati. On top of struggling against the pass rush, the line did very little to open up running lanes, with many of our runs being shut down at the line. We will likely see the offensive line rotate through more players this week to confuse the Iowa State defense. The whole line is full of strong guys who want to impose their will; they have yet to do it. I expect this to be the game when the offensive line finally clicks and starts dominating the defensive line. Regarding the receivers, I'd prepare to see a lot of Andrel Anthony and Nic Anderson. Anthony is the team's best receiver by a mile, and Anderson has shown he has incredible talent. They're both excellent in the short pass game and the deep attack, which will give our offense more range this week.

The defense played phenomenally against Cincinnati. There's no other way to put it. The defensive line pressured the QB, and the LBs blew up the run and played well in coverage. The DBs didn't have a bad game, but they didn't have a great game. Emory Jones began to torch us in the short pass game as receivers kept coming wide-open on short curl routes. The Iowa State QB, Rocco Becht, is an accurate quarterback with a quick release. He seldom holds onto the ball for long and has good WRs and TEs to throw to. If the Iowa State offensive line decides to max protect, there's a good chance Becht has quite the day through the air. It is up to the DBs to step up and shut down the pass attack. Despite their relatively successful passing attack, their run game is not very good. Against a bad Oklahoma State defense, the Cyclones only ran for 74 yards, averaging 2.2 yards per attempt. I would prepare to see a lot of blitzes in man coverage sent after the Cyclones offense. We know our defense will shut down the run, but switching from a zone blitz to a man blitz will make Rocco Becht have to wait longer to get rid of the ball and hopefully succumb to pressure. I'm predicting the defense gets four or five sacks and two interceptions.

Iowa State

The Cyclones are coming into week five after a 34-27 victory over the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Cyclones didn't look too bad in a game many predicted to be a pillow fight. Below are their statistical leaders from week five:

• Passing: Rocco Becht, 27-38, 348 yards, three touchdowns.

• Rushing: Eli Sanders, 15 rushes, 58 yards, one touchdown.

• Receiving: Jaylin Noel, eight catches, 146 yards, one touchdown.

• Tackling: Beau Freyler, eight total tackles, one solo, one pass deflection.

As mentioned above, Iowa State has a solid air attack. Many people across college football, myself included, predicted Iowa State would not be good at QB this year because of the Hunter Dekkers gambling scandal. Dekkers wasn't all that good for Iowa State and still won the starting job over Becht. I'm now questioning that decision, as Becht has been solid for Iowa State. He's an accurate passer who can escape the pocket, has a rocket-fast release, and makes few bad decisions. He has an excellent WR to throw to in Jaylin Noel (pronounced like Nole). Noel has 20 receptions for 202 yards and a touchdown this year. He's fast, has good hands, and will trouble our DBs. I'd prepare for a lot of short/mid-range passes to Noel and the tight ends. Given the quick release of Becht, we will likely see a lot of this. They will have to live and die with the air attack, as their running game is not very good. Through four games against teams towards the bottom of college football, Iowa State only averages 83.3 yards per game. We will likely see them try to establish the run but end up with a 70-30 advantage to their pass attack.

Iowa State's defense has been good this year, to the surprise of almost no one. The Iowa State defense is always incredibly fundamentally sound without consistently recruiting four or five-star players. They play their way into a top 10 defensive ranking almost every year. They even had a defensive player drafted in the first round of the NFL draft earlier this year. Compared to recent years, I wouldn't expect anything to change with their defense on Saturday. They have stuck with the 3-3-5 alignment, which helps them stop the run. They find a way to pressure the QB. They shut down wide receivers. They are the epitome of a schematically perfect defense. This will give our offensive line and run game trouble. I'd expect to see a lot of zone blitzes, with Iowa State bringing five players in on a blitz and having the others in coverage. They know how to cover deep down the field, which will force Oklahoma into a lot of short game plays. I wouldn't be surprised if they had a defensive performance against us on Saturday like SMU had a few weeks ago.

Prediction

Iowa State is a very fundamentally sound team. They have made lemonade with Rocco Becht, found a good receiver to replace Xavier Hutchinson, their defense has kept pace, and they continue to be a tough, physical team. Despite all that, they're coming to Norman to play under the prime-time lights. Oklahoma's defense is playing at a level Matt Campbell has never faced against OU, and the running game is due for a breakout. I predict this game will be OU's third blowout victory.

Score Prediction: Iowa State 10, Oklahoma 49

Oklahoma Yardage:

• Passing Yards: 320-350

• Rushing Yards: 140-160

• Total Yards: 460-510

Iowa State Yardage:

• Passing Yards: 220-240

• Rushing Yards: 60-80

• Total Yards: 280-320

Oklahoma survived the SMU scare. Oklahoma survived the Cincinnati scare. We are done sweating against teams that we should dominate. Brent Venables and Jeff Lebby will make a statement this weekend, and I can't wait to see it. Boomer Sooner!

All stats above courtesy of ESPN.