Game Preview: TCU

Happy Thanksgiving! I'm sad to say it, but the end of the regular season has arrived. Overall, this has been an amazing season, and I'm excited to see what next year brings. But that's a post for another time. Let's focus on the game being played tomorrow, Friday, November 24th.

Oklahoma

Oklahoma is coming off a scary 31-24 win against BYU. Neither the offense nor the defense could find consistency to put the game away at any point, but they did enough to win. See the graphic above for a list of OU's statistical leaders so far this season.

The Oklahoma offense is a big question mark heading into this week. Dillon Gabriel didn't play the second half against BYU due to an upper-body injury, believed to be a head injury during the game. We know how fierce of a competitor Gabriel is, and the odds of him missing his senior game at OU are slim and none. That said, if the coaching/medical staff tell him he can't play, it's as simple as that. What we saw from Jackson Arnold last week was more game management/control than fully running the offense. Until we know whether Dillon Gabriel will play, there's no way to predict what the offense will look like. That said, I'm expecting to see a hefty ground attack. Gavin Sawchuk has exploded recently. The run game is on point. Add a question mark at quarterback, and you have a recipe for a heavy dose of the run. TCU likely knows this and will run a lot of run defense, so we will see how this works. If Jackson Arnold gets the starting nod, I'd like to see the coaches trust him to run the offense. If Gabriel is in, let's see those bombs fly. Luckily, when the OU offense plays at home this year, we average 48.8 points per game. It's hard to lose a game averaging that many points per game.

The defense struggled last week against the Cougars and will have its hands full again this week with TCU. While the passing game for BYU found some success, their primary attack method was the run. We're about to see TCU try to attack our rush defense again. I'm predicting to see a lot of zone blitzes from the OU defense this week. The zone defense will keep defenders close to the line and watching the ball instead of players; the blitzes will clog up the run lanes and shut down the run. Ideally, the defensive backs in the zone will be prepared to defend the passes. I anticipate we only see man-to-man defense in clear passing situations (third and 8+). With Danny Stutsman returning to full health, Gentry Williams returning to the secondary, and the linebackers learning from mistakes last week, I predict we will see a near-shutdown performance from our defense. If our defense can shut down the run and force TCU to throw, they won't get many yards and will turn the ball over. Gentry Williams and Billy Bowman will both be in the defensive backfield, and have a combined eight interceptions on the year. Let's shut down the run and create a no-fly zone.

TCU

The Horned Frogs are coming off a dominant 42-17 win over the Baylor Bears. The offense played well the entire game, and the defense, while not putting up an elite performance, did a lot to limit Baylor's production. See the graphic above for a list of TCU's statistical leaders so far this season.

The TCU offense loves to run the ball. The ground game has become their identity this year, as they have almost 100 more runs than passes. The way TCU has stayed in so many games this year, such as the Texas game (where they almost beat Texas, losing only 29-26), has been playing to the other team's weaknesses instead of their strengths. They have an offense that will find the one player in the defensive lineup that is 6 inches out of place, and they will put the ball right where it needs to be to take advantage of that mistake. Lately, Oklahoma has had issues with delayed runs. We swarm to the ball when the play develops, which is great. That said, when RBs have tried to escape and find something else, there's no one to stop them, and they run for 30 yards. That's how UCF ran the ball all over us: by keying in on our issues with delays. I predict we'll see draw plays used with other runs up the middle, with the option of bouncing it outside if they can. They will resort to quick slant/crosses about 8 yards beyond the line when throwing the ball. Those passes have been our weakness; you can bet they'll attack it.

The TCU defense is by no definition the same level of defense we used to see in the Gary Patterson era. That said, this is not a bad defense the Horned Frogs bring to the game. Their rushing defense allows only one yard per game more than OU does, they allow only 24.1 points per game, and their passing defense allows only 8 yards per game more than OU. I predict the defense changes based on OU's QB. If Jackson Arnold is the OU QB tomorrow, TCU will blitz on almost every play. The blitz will keep us from relying on the run game too heavily while also putting pressure on a true freshman QB getting his first career start. If Dillon Gabriel is our QB, the TCU defense will primarily use three or four-man rushes, dropping everyone else into zone coverage. The only way to keep Dillon Gabriel from torching you through the air is to have so many defenders running around that someone can't come open. TCU will do everything they can to make this game as difficult as possible for OU while they fight to earn their sixth win and bowl eligibility.

Prediction

The Oklahoma defense is not what it was against Texas. The offense scores on every drive or barely gets a first down. There have been some struggles. Despite this, I believe Oklahoma will consistently succeed with the offense, and the defense will do enough to win the game.

Score Prediction: TCU 21, Oklahoma 45.

Oklahoma Yardage:

• Passing Yards: 250-350

• Rushing Yards: 160-200

• Total Yards: 410-550

TCU Yardage:

• Passing Yards: 180-220

• Rushing Yards: 100-130

• Total Yards: 280-350

Brent Venables has a chance tomorrow to accomplish something in his second season as a head coach that Steve Sarkisian took 10 years to do: win 10 games. Let's see year two of the Brent Venables era finish with a 10-win regular season, a good bowl game, and (if OSU loses) a Big 12 Championship appearance. Boomer Sooner!