Two weeks have passed since some Sooner Magic carried Oklahoma to a win against Auburn. Oklahoma wisely took week six off (Vandy beat Bama???). Now it's time for our biggest game of the season: Texas. Let's talk about what we think is coming this weekend in Dallas.
Oklahoma
The Sooners had a bye week last week but won two weeks ago against Auburn 27-21. The offense was lackluster for much of the game, and the defense was come and go, but it was enough for a win. See the graphic above for a list of Oklahoma's statistical leaders this season.
Oklahoma's offense will be without its top five wide receivers for the second game. Considering Texas has the toughest defense we will face this season, that does not bode well for Oklahoma. The offensive line had its best game of the season in pass blocking against Auburn, scoring an 80.6 pass block grade on PFF (only the Houston game before this had a pass block score higher than 70). They will need all of their pass block ability and more if they want to survive against the stout Texas pass rush. Since the Temple game (week one), our offensive line has not produced a run-blocking grade higher than 70. This will have to change. If Oklahoma's offense wants to succeed against Texas' defense, they need to dominate the line of scrimmage. Given our issues running the ball and the lack of depth in the receiver corps, dominating the trenches will be Oklahoma's only chance to succeed. Because of this, I anticipate Oklahoma will almost wholly abandon the RPO game against Texas. The offensive line will need a strict assignment with no room for fluctuation in each play. Know your man, attack him. The only option game we will see is read options. Michael Hawkins has proven to be a great and fast runner. With Taylor Tatum returning and Hawkins' ability to run the ball, Texas will be forced to play conservatively against the run. I'm hoping we see more of the air attack, as Hawkins showed last week that he can be deadly accurate. If Oklahoma can establish the run game with read options, they can force the Texas secondary to bite on the run, and Hawkins can find Pettaway or Hester downfield. Look for Brennan Thompson or Jaquaize Pettaway to have a breakout game.
The Oklahoma defense is our best chance at winning this game. They won the game for us against Auburn, Houston, Tulane, and Tennessee. They helped put the game away against Tulane and kept us in the game against Tennessee. Zac Alley has employed a great scheme that allows the defense to pressure the quarterback without bringing more than four or five defenders on most plays. We will need that against the RPO game Texas runs. The injury bug hasn't just affected the wide receiver group and our defensive back room. Two of our best defensive backs, Gentry Williams and Kendel Dolby (both of whom intercepted Texas last season), have been ruled out against Texas. Jacobe Johnson has switched to wide receiver. This is going to be a depleted secondary. Because of this, I anticipate Oklahoma will bring many four- or five-man pressures. They will need to pressure Quinn Ewers, and I believe they can, but they will need all the help in the secondary they can get. Having six or seven players in the secondary while R Mason Thomas, Trace Ford, Gracen Halton, and DaJon Terry attack Quinn Ewers gives our defense the best opportunity to succeed. If the pass rush can hit home and the secondary can force turnovers, they might even force Texas to make a change at quarterback.
Texas
The Longhorns are also coming off a bye week in week six, but in week five, they soundly beat Jeff Lebby's Mississippi State Bulldogs. See the graphic above for a list of Texas's statistical leaders this season.
The Texas offense is one of the best in the country. There's no sugarcoating it. Everything Oklahoma has struggled with, Texas has excelled at. Oklahoma can't block consistently, while Texas has one of the best offensive lines in college football. Oklahoma had to make a quarterback change, while Texas has two superstar quarterbacks. Oklahoma's top five wide receivers are hurt, while Texas has almost all of theirs healthy and performing with the best in the country. This will not be an easy offense to face. What makes it even more challenging is the RPO scheme they run. Texas has insanely fast wide receivers and a powerful offensive line. This creates a combo of pass protection for Ewers, run blocking for their running back room, and receivers getting separation immediately off the snap. Because of their skill with the RPO scheme, we will see them employ it heavily against us. I'd be shocked if Texas runs more than 10 plays the whole game that don't involve motion or more than five passes that don't include a play-action fake.
Remember when I was talking about how good the Texas offense is? They have a defense to match. True freshman Collin Simmons is already one of the best pass rushers in college football. Their secondary, a liability for them last year, has quickly become one of the best in the country. To top all of this off? They shut down opposing offenses while seldom blitzing. They have a great scheme with great players running it. That said, they haven't played a top-50 offense this season (they still wouldn't have after Red River). Given all the question marks around Oklahoma's offense, I anticipate Texas' little-blitz philosophy to change. They know how bad our offensive line has been and that we're starting a true freshman QB. The best way to attack that is with heavy pressure. Confuse the offensive line with heavy blitz schemes, forcing Hawkins to run for his life and make mistakes. Given that we will be down all five of our top five wide receivers, Texas likely won't have too much difficulty covering our receivers.
Prediction
I want so badly to be wrong about how I think this game will go. I want every OU fan reading this to end up telling me how bad of a prediction this was because of how well OU played. I want nothing more. That said, I don't see a path for Oklahoma to win this game. We will see the Oklahoma defense keep us in the game until the late third quarter, at which point Texas will pull away.
Texas 27, Oklahoma 10.
Oklahoma Yardage:
Passing Yards: 140-170
Rushing Yards: 60-90
Total Yards: 200-260
Texas Yardage:
Passing Yards: 220-280
Rushing Yards: 130-150
Total Yards: 350-430
Sooner Magic is real. This game is not out of reach. If anyone knows how to stop the Texas offense, it's Brent Venables. There is just so much working against us. I want nothing more than to tell you I was wrong in a few days. But for now, let's see what happens. Boomer!
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