Game Preview: Tulane

The Sooners held on for dear life against Houston and survived. We are on to game three of the regular season, and Oklahoma is preparing to face the Tulane Green Wave. The last time these two played in Norman, it came down to the wire, with OU winning 40-35. How will Oklahoma fare this weekend? Let's talk about it.

Oklahoma

The Sooners are coming off an ugly 16-12 win over the Houston Cougars in week two. The Oklahoma defense showed they are quickly becoming one of the best in the country. The offense showed they are... not. The above graphic shows the statistical leaders this season for Oklahoma.

The offense was not good last week. There's no other way to put it. There are a variety of things that are contributing to this, but the biggest is how the offense constantly finds themselves in third-and-long scenarios. Last week, the average distance to go on third down for Oklahoma was nine yards. You can't run a successful offense if you need to convert from nine yards away every time you go to third down. I predict Seth Littrell and Joe Jon Finley will do their best to limit how often we find ourselves in third and long. We will see runs outside the tackles on most first downs, followed by short passes/interior runs on second down. If the offense can change their average distance to go on third down from nine to two yards, we will see significantly better offensive production. On top of this, our passing offense will be limited. Deion Burks is a beast. But unless Nic Anderson and/or Andrel Anthony are healthy/getting a lot of reps again, we likely won't see too much more than RPOs, slants, or little dump-off passes. Instead of trying to run the OU offense of the last decade, we will see a much more methodical, slow, grind-it-out offense.

I have almost no notes about the defense against Houston. Aside from one or two busted plays, the defense played lights out. The only reason they allowed a touchdown was because there was evident confusion on alignment. If the cornerbacks can close the larger-than-expected gaps in the zone defense, we will have a dominant showing again. We didn't blitz too much last week, relying on the four-man rush to get home (it did). If the defense can get set slightly quicker in short-yardage situations, they should have no problem playing well against Tulane. I predict we will see more of a pass rush from Oklahoma's defense this week. Tulane is a much better team than people want to give them credit for, and they have a really good quarterback. If you didn't notice in the above graphic, their best WR (Mario Williams) was part of the 2021 OU squad who left for USC when Lincoln Riley left. He is fast and can get open easily. Because of this, I don't anticipate much man-to-man defense from OU. The only time I anticipate OU having man-to-man defense is in third-down situations where we're bringing pressure. If you've got Danny Stutsman, Damonic Williams, Gracen Halton, and Kip Lewis sprinting at you, odds are you're going to have to get it out quick, where Peyton Bowen, Robert Spears-Jennings (the #1 safety in college football per PFF), Billy Bowman, or Gentry Williams will be waiting for it.

Tulane

Tulane is coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Kansas State Wildcats in week two. Tulane, who led the game 20-10 at halftime, lost 34-27 to the Wildcats. It looked towards the end like they could tie it, but an interception cost them the game. See the graphic above for a list of their statistical leaders for this season.

Something evident from the graphic alone is that the Tulane offense has two things that Oklahoma doesn't offensively: explosive play capability and consistency. They have a RB who is getting most of the rushes, averaging over five yards/carry because of it. They have a WR who is averaging 25 yards per catch and a QB who is averaging over 13 yards per pass attempt. They know who their playmakers are, and they're getting the ball to them as much as they can. This could easily create problems for the Oklahoma defense. We will see a 50/50 split between running the ball and passing. Their running game is a dominant force and got priority over the air attack against Kansas State. That said, Oklahoma currently allows only 1.8 yards/carry this year against the rush. That, combined with some of the mild but evident issues in coverage, will encourage the Green Wave to throw more. Oklahoma must be careful how they play against this QB, as he is quick, can improvise well, and has a strong and accurate arm.

The Tulane defense is a solid bunch who gave the Wildcats everything they could last week. Their run defense is a little lackluster (they allowed 6.5 yards/rush and over 200 yards last week), but their pass defense gave Kansas State fits. They allowed only 7.9 yards per pass attempt, and only 65% of the passes to be completed. It is tricky to predict what Tulane will do defensively because of where Oklahoma's struggles are. Part of me thinks Tulane will blitz a lot, as Houston did last week. Houston's ability to blitz shut down our running lanes and made Jackson Arnold's life very difficult. Another part of me thinks they want to make Oklahoma one-dimensional by keeping Jackson Arnold from throwing the ball. That strategy involves rushing fewer people and putting as many as possible in coverage. If they do that, though, we have three proven RBs who can run against a struggling rush defense. The logical solution would be for Tulane to run a man defense with a five-man rush. They have enough to put pressure on our struggling offensive line yet leave enough in coverage to make our WR group struggle to get open and put Jackson Arnold in tough situations.

Prediction

Unless there is a drastic change in the roster or the playcalling, I don't believe we will see too much of an improvement in our offense. I think we can get better on first and second down, allowing the offense more opportunities to score. And I believe the defense is hungry and looking for a big green snack.

Tulane 10, Oklahoma 27.

Oklahoma Yardage:

• Passing Yards: 200-220

• Rushing Yards: 90-110

• Total Yards: 290-330

Tulane Yardage:

• Passing Yards: 200-250

• Rushing Yards: 60-100

• Total Yards: 260-350

We did not get the start we were expecting/hoping for from Oklahoma this year, but we're 2-0. It's hard to ask for more than that. This week will be our most challenging so far of the season, and I hope OU is ready for the test. Let's get this win. Boomer!